Assessing wastewater-based epidemiology for the prediction of SARS-CoV-2 incidence in Catalonia.

While wastewater-based epidemiology has proven a useful tool for epidemiological surveillance during the COVID-19 pandemic, few quantitative models comparing virus concentrations in wastewater samples and cumulative incidence have been established. In this work, a simple mathematical model relating virus concentration and cumulative incidence for full contagion waves was developed. The model was then used for short-term forecasting and compared to a local linear model. Both scenarios were tested using a dataset composed of samples from 32 wastewater treatment plants and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) incidence data covering the corresponding geographical areas during a 7-month period, including two contagion waves. A population-averaged dataset was also developed to model and predict the incidence over the full geography. Overall, the mathematical model based on wastewater data showed a good correlation with cumulative cases and allowed us to anticipate SARS-CoV-2 incidence in one week, which is of special relevance in situations where the epidemiological monitoring system cannot be fully implemented.

Elimination of SARS-CoV-2 along wastewater and sludge treatment processes.

The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is shed in the feces of infected people. As a consequence, genomic RNA of the virus can be detected in wastewater. Although the presence of viral RNA does not inform on the infectivity of the virus, this presence of genetic material raised the question of the effectiveness of treatment processes in reducing the virus in wastewater and sludge. In this work, treatment lines of 16 wastewater treatment plants were monitored to evaluate the removal of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in raw, processed waters and sludge, from March to May 2020. Viral RNA copies were enumerated using reverse transcriptase quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) in 5 different laboratories. These laboratories participated in proficiency testing scheme and their results demonstrated the reliability and comparability of the results obtained for each one. SARS-CoV-2 RNA was found in 50.5% of the 101 influent wastewater samples characterized. Positive results were detected more frequently in those regions with a COVID-19 incidence higher than 100 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. Wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) significantly reduced the occurrence of virus RNA along the water treatment lines. Secondary treatment effluents showed an occurrence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in 23.3% of the samples and no positive results were found after MBR and chlorination. Non-treated sludge (from primary and secondary treatments) presented a higher occurrence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA than the corresponding water samples, demonstrating the affinity of virus particles for solids. Furthermore, SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected in treated sludge after thickening and anaerobic digestion, whereas viral RNA was completely eliminated from sludge only when thermal hydrolysis was applied. Finally, co-analysis of SARS-CoV-2 and F-specific RNA bacteriophages was done in the same water and sludge samples in order to investigate the potential use of these bacteriophages as indicators of SARS-CoV-2 fate and reduction along the wastewater treatment.